Monday, April 09, 2007

The Fred factor down the ticket

As I have said in the past I am not currently endorsing Fred Thompson in a race he has not entered. I want a candidate who publicly wants to be and will actively seek the presidency. If Fred gets in, then great, we will cross that bridge then. If he does not get in then we have made who ever the party nominee is look like the girl who got asked second to the big dance.

There are other candidates or potential candidates who may have redeeming qualities that will end up being over looked because of all of the Fred fervor and may end up brushed aside because they did not build any mo until it was too late. Some Tennesseans may feel we did not get the one we wanted so why does it matter.

Fred has also teased us in the past and left us hanging on a potential runs for office. He has a reputation (earned or not) of not running hard or coasting to an easy victory over soft competition. Questions are out there of "Does Fred have the fire in the belly to run a long hard race and if he wins will he be able to take the grind of the job?"

Just because the Mo' is with him now does not make it enough to put him over the top. The last time I saw this type of call for someone to run was for a little known tycoon from Texas, his name ......Ross Perot. We all know how that turned out.


That is the downside.

The upside is huge.

Fred is a winner. Lots of people want to win but don't know how. Fred does. He knows how to win and has the ability to turn it on when needed. He is politically savvy, people like him and he has a presence, almost an instant repour with people. I have seen this with other candidates at the top level before. If you have it, it is priceless. If you don't, all the money and talking points in the world won't help you.

Talking points are another solid for Fred. Fred is a conservative with good credentials only matched by a few non front runners. He has huge face ID because of the TV show "law and order" as well as other movies he has been in (The TV/Movie rout has worked out pretty well in the past for Republicans) He can probably pull some of the Hollywood crowd and money in a quick run. He has a party system in place (Unlike Ross), a majority of people in the party are open to another choice and mo' is with him.

If he runs and momentum sticks with him it could quickly turn into a race for second place.

I said in the last election that it was "a perfect storm for Democrats" Nothing at the top of the ticket pumped up the base. The federal races were a mess. In Tennessee, Republicans turned out and voted but not much else. The base did not get involved and help build ticket loyalty. We at the state level were still able to stick with the same number of house seats, but it was not because of any help from the top of the ticket. That could quickly change.

If Fred is the party nominee it could easily push republican numbers in the Tennessee state house up over 50. If the opposition is a polarizing NY liberal Hillary Rodham Clinton It could be one of the biggest beatdowns in state history. The numbers will carry down the ticket as they tend to do and I could see even bigger gains.

This could be the perfect storm for Republicans. Motivated republican candidates or potential candidates who want a good shot at getting into politics and changing some seats down the ticket should start sniffing around. Experience, party connections and big money are not a necessity (some times the less you have the better). If any one is interested I can privately send you to people who you may want to talk to. Comments on potentially running for office will not be posted on this post.