The outlook for 2010 and beyond

I know the election just passed but many people are already gearing up and some libs are even predicting Republican losses or a Democrat return to power in Tennessee. To this I often wonder what some people are smoking.

So, As the official buzz killer/delusion ender of the Democrat party, without even getting into superior Republican ideas and such, I present my top 10 reasons Democrats wont take back majority any time soon.

#10 The National Economy The economy is in a slump. No matter who won the presidency, I and many others doubt a huge turn around in two years. If anything the economy will probably get worse before it gets better. Who will the national Dems blame it on? They just about have total control! They will now have to finally take responsibility for how things are moving (or not moving). Two years from now the economy and deficit will probably look worse then it will in four years (if Dems are lucky). Not a positive look for Democrats on the national scene. This wont be as much a factor against Republicans at the state level because a balanced budget is required in our state constitution.

#9 The President Even though he will not be on the ticket, Obama will still be president and the titular head of the Democrats. Lets just go with the assumption (even though I feel it is false) that racism was a huge factor in this election cycle. Those people are not suddenly going to change their prejudices and get excited about the president elect. If anything more people will have more reasons to hate him since he will have a record of doing things that some people don't like. Some will say he did too much, others too little. Either way its bad for Dems. Minority and youth vote turnout will also probably go back to its normal dismal pre Obama numbers because the blind Obama hysteria will be over.

#8 The top of the ticket What race will be the top of the state ticket? The governors race.
Democrats in this election may not have turned out as much because they weren't excited about their top of the ticket candidate but does anyone think that will change dramatically if Bill Frist is running at the top of the ticket vs. another relative unknown similar to what "Lamar!" had in this last election run? I think that is the likely scenario as any halfway credible Democrat knows the odds are slim to none if Frist is in and only marginally better if he is out. Down ticket Republican can tie their name to Frist. Who can Down ticket Dems tie to? Nobody. Phil Bredesen is a lame duck now (look at the election results, even in his own caucus) He will be way more lame in two years. Forget it.

#7 Weak state wide Democrats "No! No! No! We can win if Frist isn't in" say the Dems. Not likely. The proof is Ford Jr.. I think by most accounts Jr. was the Democrats best candidate. He was beaten by Bob Corker who, by most accounts (with the exception of fund raising ability) was not thought of as the top shelf candidate. The numbers don't get a lot better against a Marsha, Zack or Haslem who will be funded about as well as Corker was and probably would present better. Jr. Was a national novelty figure so he could raise money outside the state and kept it close. Obama's big win and Ford's loss have taken Jr.'s novelty and shine away. Jr. is a repeat run at best.

Lincoln "The great white hope" Davis, while less liberal then Ford was in his time in the house doesn't present as well as Jr. did (To be kind he has a way of putting his foot in his mouth) and he will have a hard time getting to the right of any Republican candidates or out raising them to the point needed to compete state wide. Lincoln Davis wont have big name ID going for him and he isn't personally rich so if he can't win big on charisma, issues, money or name ID. Where does he win?


#6 Tennessee trends Like it or not Tennessee is already a right leaning state and is trending more and more Republican. Want proof?

Al Gore.

Gore was well known and a big name already in Tennessee from riding on his fathers coattails. Even running for president he couldn't win statewide anymore in Tennessee and it's his supposed home state. John Kerry? Worse. Obama? Double Worse. Bredesen? He is the anomaly and probably wouldn't have won if he wasn't Rich, rich, rich.

#5 Down ticket Republicans have fresh new candidates who almost won some close races against older Democrat candidates this last election. Many of these older Democrat candidates may move on now being in the minority as well as facing probable tough rematches in two years. Some younger Democrats in office are also being rumored to be shifting to other local offices. Open seats are much easier to win by someone who has run before and most of the likely open races or rematches are in Republican leaning districts. I suspect we could pick up two or three more seats in 2010 (Possibly 4 or 5 if it all falls right).

#4 Money The flow of campaign donations is going to shift more to Republicans now that we are in power. We saw the shift start when Republicans took over the senate. I expect it will continue to flow for Republicans and dry up for Democrats since we have now gained control of the house as well as the senate. With a likely Republican governor (Especially one who has a lot of money and will want to keep a Republican legislature to push his agenda) I expect Republicans to have large fund raising leads at election time. Possible bigger gains or wider disparities will grow if some campaign laws are made equitable for both sides (as I expect them to become).

#3 Redistricting In 2010 if Republicans re draw the district lines (The majority party draws the lines) and are fair, most people think we will be at 55 to 60 seats. If we treat Dems as Republicans have been treated in the past it could get up to 65 seats or more held by Republicans.

#2 Fair distribution Expect Republicans to suddenly look more effective in passing legislation as well as getting their fair share of government resources. Did we suddenly get smarter? No. We just wont run into blockades, have our legislation stolen and hopefully distribution of assets won't be based solely on party affiliation anymore.

#1 Funny stuff Expect election laws changes to clean up some shady things that have been going on for years. Stopping Dead voters, Democrats no longer always being at the top of the ticket, Republican election commissions and mandatory ID should slow some of the questionable things that have traditionally been to the advantage of Democrats on election day.