Back during the last election I was pleasantly surprised when Republicans pulled off a big upset victory beating "conservative" Democrat Lincoln Davis in what was traditionally a Democrat district.
I say surprised but not really shocked.
I knew Lincoln was in trouble when he started to freak out about his race and was campaigning early. Attacks on his opponent, big names coming in trying to prop him up, tons of media stories saying what a good "conservative Democrat" he was and how Republicans need to leave him alone because he was a moderate "reasonable" Democrat.
I could smell blood.
I have been seeing some of the same motions and actions from Jim Cooper and the press as of late. Having big names come into the state to try and prop Cooper up, Attacks on the "Evil Republicans" for trying to keep illegal voters from voting (a tactic that ended up making Cooper look worse, not better) and the media saying Republicans should leave Cooper alone and not make his district any more Republican. To me, those are major flags.
Cooper is in trouble.
After last nights elections in Nevada and even crazy liberal New York where Registered Democrats have a 3 to 1 advantage over registered Republicans (and the openly conservative Republican still won) Anything is possible. It appears moderate and even some more traditionally liberal democrats are over Obama. In Tennessee, a place where liberalism is on the decline and Democrats are traditionally conservative, even the casual Democrat observer have to be deeply concerned about Coopers prospects.
I can now say without a lot of doubt, A quality Republican candidate could spell the end for Cooper with or without redistricting. Redistricting would just make the job easier.