As I said a few days ago my decision to shift my support to Rick Santorum was difficult, but as I drilled down on the numbers my decision became more and more clear. As I said I love Newt. When he was speaker Lowered taxes, balanced budgets, unemployment was ½ what it is now and he Reformed entitlements.
He has finished in 3rd or 4th place for 8 states in a row.
He and to a lesser degree Ron Paul are NOT fighting Rick Santorum any longer, they are fighting the question is Romney “inevitable"?
Credible polling has Newt (And Paul to a lesser degree) at 9-13% not just in Tennessee but in a lot of states. But for the sake of argument lets just say Newt is really at 18%. Lets just say Jupiter aligns with Pluto and Newt suddenly jumps another 5 or 6 points in every single poll in every single state in 24 hours with no debates and a fraction of the money. He still probably loses every single state except Georgia and possibly North Carolina to Romney.
His votes almost all come from Santorum supporters so he realistically helps Romney win 8 or probably 9 out of 10 super Tuesday states making it 13 out of 14 in the last few weeks for Romney. I don’t see how Anyone can go out and tell people you are viable and that Romney is not inevitable after that with a straight face.
Let’s just say numbers stay close to where they are right now and Santorum holds on and wins Tennessee, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina. Maybe squeaks out a shocker in Vermont or NJ. Newt wins Georgia or possibly HE even wins NC.
Entirely different dynamic then saying one guy won 13 out of the last 14 states.
Then you can go out and sell Romney lost the majority of states (11 of 19) and its still a horse race for a conservative to win. Not a forgone conclusion.
That is why unless you support Romney you need to vote for Rick Santorum even if you really want Newt to win. The exception being if you live in Georgia or maybe North Carolina.
The numbers don't lie. The 3 conservatives need Santorum to win on Tuesday or its over for all of them.