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Monday, March 05, 2012

What can you sell on Wednesday?

As I said a few days ago my decision to shift my support to Rick Santorum was difficult, but as I drilled down on the numbers my decision became more and more clear. As I said I love Newt. When he was speaker Lowered taxes, balanced budgets, unemployment was ½ what it is now and he Reformed entitlements.

But

He has finished in 3rd or 4th place for 8 states in a row.

He and to a lesser degree Ron Paul are NOT fighting Rick Santorum any longer, they are fighting the question is Romney “inevitable"?

Credible polling has Newt (And Paul to a lesser degree) at 9-13% not just in Tennessee but in a lot of states. But for the sake of argument lets just say Newt is really at 18%. Lets just say Jupiter aligns with Pluto and Newt suddenly jumps another 5 or 6 points in every single poll in every single state in 24 hours with no debates and a fraction of the money. He still probably loses every single state except Georgia and possibly North Carolina to Romney.

His votes almost all come from Santorum supporters so he realistically helps Romney win 8 or probably 9 out of 10 super Tuesday states making it 13 out of 14 in the last few weeks for Romney. I don’t see how Anyone can go out and tell people you are viable and that Romney is not inevitable after that with a straight face.

But…

Let’s just say numbers stay close to where they are right now and Santorum holds on and wins Tennessee, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina. Maybe squeaks out a shocker in Vermont or NJ. Newt wins Georgia or possibly HE even wins NC.

Entirely different dynamic then saying one guy won 13 out of the last 14 states.

Then you can go out and sell Romney lost the majority of states (11 of 19) and its still a horse race for a conservative to win. Not a forgone conclusion.

That is why unless you support Romney you need to vote for Rick Santorum even if you really want Newt to win. The exception being if you live in Georgia or maybe North Carolina.

The numbers don't lie. The 3 conservatives need Santorum to win on Tuesday or its over for all of them.

7 comments:

  1. Santorum CAN NOT Absolutely CAN NOT Win in the general election. Newt stands,although remotely, a better chance in the general election & Paul Polls even better than Obama in a headed to head Poll.
    Your assumption that Newt voters are taking votes away from Santorum is both disrespectful of the electorate and, basically, wishful thinking on your part.

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  2. There are conservatives, and there are conservatives. Santorum is just way too conservative for me. Gingrich is more conservative than Romney (he's really between Romney and Santorum when it comes it conservativism), and he is more in line with the way I think. Santorum and Gingrich aren't one and the same. I also agree with Anonymous that Newt is more likely than Santorum to win a general election. Santorum would alienate a lot of the electorate. I don't think people who vote for Newt would necessarily vote for Santorum if they didn't vote for Newt. I'd be stuck between a rock and a hard place if I had to pick Romney or Santorum. Newt is my man and he got my vote.

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  3. Rick and Newt have said the same things themselves.

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  4. FROM DAY ONE IT WAS (A GOOD THING)CLEAR THEY WERE WORKING TOGETHER(THATS MORE THAN I CAN SAY FOR D.C.)..IF SANTORUM BACKS NEWT, THEN THEY NEED TO GET PAUL 'S DELAGATES,AND GIVE HIM SEC OF TREASURY..:)(JUST A THOUGHT). AND JUST STEAMROLL ROMNEY..

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  5. Stacey, would you please quit telling the lie that Newt balanced the budgets? You are being dishonest by repeating this lie. Santorum was there with him, raising the debt ceiling 5 times.

    Conservatives aren't going to get anywhere, being dishonest about their records.

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  6. "The 3 conservatives need Santorum to win on Tuesday or its over for all of them."

    Oh man, that's rich. Why don't you try the old "a vote for anybody but Santorum is a vote for Obama"?

    How do I know a vote for Santorum today isn't stolen and used as a vote for Romney later. After all, it's already been done to the Newt early voters that gave you their vote. When the GOP makes up the rules as they go, what's the point in voting in their private club election?

    The RNC (Romney Nominating Committee) has spoken long ago. This is why Santorum has no chance. He is designed to fail (and additionally has no TN delegates that aren't stolen). When Santorum and Gingrich drop out, you can still support the last remaining conservative (who has the delegates), because he won't quit. Yes, the RNC chosen one will win (by any means necessary) and hopefully you will begin to realize what a rotting corpse the RNC really is.

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  7. I understand the strategic argument. I am concerned that this kind of plan obscures the message of the voter and continues to lead us away from the best candidates. The above comment is right about Rick -- he does not stand a chance to win, whereas Newt does. I am not even sure that Romney is going to come within 10 points of Obama. When people actually hear Newt they agree with him and see him as one who could beat Obama. However, it is certainly true that your plan could steal away delegates from Mitt which is a good thing.

    I am not sure I really like this 20 percent threshold thing.

    P.S. I no longer visit the Bistro and neither do the other 4 families in my circle of influence.

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