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Monday, November 05, 2012

Predictions.

I have been hit and miss with predictions. Usually I under predict gains. We will see how it goes this time.

Presidential.

I hope on Wednesday I am not like that person with the famous quote "I honestly don't know how Nixon won. No one I know voted for him" but honestly expect a BIG Romney win.  From all the feedback I get its not even going to be close.  I often hear "I voted for him last time but not again".  I know most of the polls show it as close and Obama leading in almost all of the swing states but I just don't think it will work out like that. Republicans traditionally under poll and conservatives under poll even more. Its not like the TEA party movement that swept in huge numbers of Republicans in 2010 has died out. If anything, its grown and stiffened its resolve. They are fired up and have been for the last year.  Sure in a poll many voters may say they are still voting Obama but half of them don't want to have to deal with the tired old attacks "If you don't vote Obama you must be a racist. bible thumper!!" that the left keeps dolling out on anyone who  says they oppose Obama. They say they are voting Obama to get off the phone but it will be a different story when they are behind the curtain.

Also, What I am seeing in Tennessee I think is going to be a microcosm of what happens across the nation. When the votes are counted you will see that the Republicans had a large turn out to vote early and (as usual) they will show up even more on election day. The Democrat areas and early voting for Democrats will have been depressed. That's what I am seeing not just in Knoxville Democrat strongholds like the inner city but also across the state in traditional democrat strongholds  (Nashville area and Memphis area).

 Even if they do still support Obama they aren't as excited as they were last time and when the excitement is gone people don't turn out even if they like their candidate. I think its easy to say the shine is gone, voters no longer have to try and assuage their inner white guilt or just want to do something different. There is no tingle up the leg to be a part of something historical. They aren't as deluded as they were last time with the belief that Obama was going to be a huge transformational character. There is a record, Obama has to run on and it and it isn't good.

 Honestly, if Obama wins it will be the best thing in the world for the Republican party (as he is the greatest recruiter and motivator our party has ever seen) but if he wins I think it will be a disaster for our country. I would have to wonder about where our country is headed. I would have serious doubt as to our countries long term stability or its ability to recover after 4 more years like the last 4 too many big changes need to be made and Obama has not shown a willingness to sit down and make the hard compromises.

It may be less of an issue depending on how we do in the following two areas.

US Senate

A few pick ups but I am not as optimistic as I am for the presidency. 3 or 4 seats. Possible majority but if that, not much more. Not 60 to really move things.

US Congressional

Nation wide I expect minimal gains. Possibly even a loss or two. I think the congressional races were swept up pretty good 2 years ago with the TEA party and I don't expect to see huge changes after 2 years. Yes, I even expect Rep Scott Dejerwhatever to win. Popular Democrat Lincoln Davis did the dirt thing on him last time and it didn't play. I doubt it will work this time either. People don't want to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi. Of course next primary he is in BIG trouble. BIIIIIIIG trouble.

State senate

We about run the table. 6 wins at least maybe 7. Count on it.

State house

6 wins is a minimum. 10 is a possible. With state house level races a lot comes down to who will do the work. Trust me when I say, to do it right its months of effort. Some do it and some don't. Often times, because of the work ethic, some bad candidate will still win and some good people don't. Everything we can ask for is leaning Republicans way but a lazy candidate can still get beat if the other side is willing to work hard and has a bit of money.

 I think all the Knoxville races go our way. Incumbents win and Gary Loe picks up the swing/former Democrat district. Gary and his opponent have both worked hard but if the signs tell me anything its that Gary has worked a little harder at the doors.   We will see on election night if I am right.

Ballot questions

They all pass by big margins.

We will see where it all works out in less then 48 hours. Enjoy!

6 comments:

  1. I'm not for either Democrips or Rebloodlicans...

    I'm for Gary Johnson on this one. I must support what I think is right rather than throw up a gang sign...

    Considering recent policies such as the NDAA and the Patriot Act, I could care less about a gang affiliation. I don't buy into that game this time! I want the freedom that the founders of this country originally fought for!

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  2. Romeny Wave Election with coattails. We will take the US Senate with 53 seats, maybe 55. No loses in the House with probably 3 gains.

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  3. Vote the Constitution Party ticket. Virgil Goode President, Kermit Steck Senate.

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  4. Anonymous, that's fine in a non-batlleground state but to vote that way in a swing state is irresponsible and advocating for it anonymously, is cowardly.
    -tg

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  5. Thanks very much, Senator Campfield! You've put a great deal of work and effort into providing these predictions for us!

    May God bless America!

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  6. "Its not like the TEA party movement that swept in huge numbers of Republicans in 2010 has died out. If anything, its grown and stiffened its resolve. They are fired up and have been for the last year."

    LOL! Yeah right. You aren't talking about Tennessee are you? Remember Corker getting over 80% of the vote after voting for TARP and being against an audit of the Fed? By far and large, Tea Partiers have yet to put their money where their mouths are in Tennessee. There are exceptions of course, but your statement is hilarious when you look at Tennessee politics. It is better elsewhere, but not here.

    Romney is not going to win big. That's nonsense. The polls consistently showed that only Romney and Paul (Ron not Ryan) had a chance to beat Obama, but that it would be close with Romney and Obama. Ultimately it has been difficult for Romney because he has flipped and flopped more than a fish out of water. This should have been an easy election for Republicans, but they learned nothing from 4 years ago.

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